Before the end of the present century, unless something quite unforeseeable occurs, one of three possibilities will have been realized. These three are:
I. The end of human life, perhaps of all life on our planet.
II. A reversion to barbarism after a catastrophic diminution of the population of the globe.
III. A unification of the world under a single government, possessing a monopoly of all the major weapons of war.I do not pretend to know which of these will happen, or even which is the most likely. What I do contend, without any hesitation, is that the kind of system to which we have been accustomed cannot possibly continue.--Bertrand Russell (1950) "The Future of Mankind" reprinted in Unpopular Essays, (1950) [all references to the 2009 Routledge reprint], p. 33.+
This is the second post on Russell's Unpopular Essays (recall here). I don't quote this to make fun of Russell as prognosticator, or to use it as an example of the fallacy of overlooked alternatives, although it is amusing that such an admirer of Hume misses the option of muddling through altogether. Or more accurately he finds it wholly unattractive: for, unlike the better dead than red crowd, Russell thinks "world empire of either the US or the USSR is preferable to the results of a continuation of the present international anarchy." (37) This reminds us that those who lived through and survived the first half of the twentieth century had every reason to expect more disastrous, political upheaval. For example, while illustrating the scenario that can lead to option I, Russell expects a "next world war" sooner or later. (The extent of the spread and use of atomic weapons is the key variable in this option.)
While illustrating possibility II, Russell sketches a scenario that anticipates A Canticle for Leibowitz:
Imagine each side in a position to destroy the chief cities and centers of industry of the enemy; imagine an almost complete obliteration of laboratories and libraries, accompanied by a heavy casualty rate among men of science; imagine famine due to radio-active spray, and pestilence caused by bacteriological warfare: would social cohesion survive such strains? Would not prophets tell the maddened populations that their ills were wholly due to science, and that the extermination of all educated men would bring the millennium? Extreme hopes are born of extreme misery, and in such a world hopes could only be irrational. I think the great states to which we are accuston1ed would break up, and the sparse survivors would revert to a primitive village economy. (34-35)
But most of "The Future of Mankind" is not given over to such gloomy prognostications. Russell's heart is in envisioning the "establishment of a single government for the whole world." (35) And the "most hopeful" scenario he advocates is "an alliance of the nations that desire an international government, becoming, in the end, so strong that Russia would no longer dare to stand out." (35) As is well known, Russell was not fond of the Soviet Union, and the "Future of Mankind" explains his reasoning for preferring world domination by America over Russia. His view is not based on an uncritical fondness of the USA (even if, as noted above, he is willing to live with either Russian or American world empire).*
Strikingly, from our perspective, he thinks there are then "only two fully independent states, America and Russia." (42) And so according to Russell all other states are protectorates, vassals, or dominions of these two in some sense. While for us it is easy to note that he missed the long-term significance of Mao's (1949) victory, it is especially striking that he understood, what the British government of his own age did not yet, that full British independence had ended (they would discover it in 1956).
His preference for an American empire is rather Millian in character and is instructive about Russell's fundamental values: freedom of speech, academic freedom, experiments in living (etc.). It is not a preference for capitalism over socialism. But he thinks the absence of liberty has turned Russia into an extreme oligarchy.*
The first step-and it is one which is now not very difficult -is to persuade the United States and the British Commonwealth of the absolute necessity for a military unification of the world. The governments of the English-speaking nations should then offer to all other nations the option of entering into a firm Alliance, involving a pooling of military resources and mutual defense against aggression. In the case. of hesitant nations, such as Italy, great inducements, economic and military, should be held out to produce their co-operation. (41)
As I learned from (recall) Or Roisenbom's The Emergence of Globalism: Visions of World Order, and a number of Duncan Bell's writings including (recall) Reordering the World: Essays on Liberalism and Empire, and especially, the more recent Dreamworlds of Race: Empire and the Utopian Destiny of Anglo-America proposals for union between the US and the British Commonwealth were quite prevalent in the 1930s. And Russell was very much aware of these developments. Many of these proposals had a strong imperial flavor with commitments to racial or civilizational (Anglo-Saxon) superiority. Russell's echoing of such proposals is notable because he is cosmopolitan critic of existing empires, and a critic of racial superiority (e.g. "An Outline of Intellectual Rubbish" (82-85) "Ideas that Have Harmed Mankind" (152-153)).
Even so, because of the History of Western Philosophy (1947), it's easy to establish that Russell was also familiar with and admired Kant's Perpetual Peace.** Kant's federalism involved pacific regional (growing) federations of commercial liberal democracies (Kant uses 'republics' but he means, as Russell notes in the History, states with separation of powers).** In Kant, too, the main point is to pool military resources and make foreign aggression unlikely and to eventually creative a world state with a monopoly on violence. And not unlike Kant, Russell wants this to lead to a world in which "laws to control international relations" are "effective." (43) That is, backed up by power and possibility of violence. A world army would then be "like a municipal force." And while one might flinch at the conflation of military force and policing, the underlying point is rather Kantian, I think. The point of the monopoly of force
is a means to the growth of a social system governed by law, where force is not the prerogative of private individuals or nations, but is exercised only by a neutral authority in accordance with rules laid down in advance. There is hope that law, rather than private force, may come to govern the relations of nations within the present century. If this hope is not realized we face utter disaster; if it is realized, the world will be far better than at any previous period in the history of man. (43)
Now, I want to close with four observations about Russell's position. First, when Russell wrote this he cited public opinion in the United States in favor of such a project. (37) But in contrast to the American public, which foresaw "friendly negotiations" as the means to such an imperial federation, Russell -- who had been a heroic pacifist in World War I --, he believes "the use of force, or the threat of force, will be necessary." That Russell is willing to advocate the use of force, given his prior commitments, suggests how seriously he takes the likelihood and disastrousness of the threat of options I-II.
Third, earlier in the essay, Russell, recognizes that world empire might well be world domination. But he assumes that in the absence of foreign enemies, a world elite would eventually soften "freed from fear." (37) And so "gradually more good-natured and less inclined to persecute." (37) He has the Roman example in mind, an he calls attention to their practice of extending citizenship to those they conquered. And it's not difficult here to discern her the Victorian (romantic) understanding of the Romans he would have encountered as a kid.
Finally, and most importantly, I am struck by the fact that Russell tacitly assumes the abolition of politics with world empire. In this, even Russell is very much a man of his own age. Notice that there is no middle term between force and law. But somewhere, somebody has to lay down the "rules...in advance." And presumably this will involve the play or clash of competitive interests; and since the context is a concentration of power, one may well wonder how impartial or unbiased these rules will be. That is, while it is possible that the laws will be administered impartially, a 'neutral authority' seems perhaps a lovely hope, too far.
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