Another thing I was wrong about

On the Final Days of Erdoğan

I write this as the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, appears to have ordered the police assault to empty Gezi park from the brave citizens that taught the whole world lessons in civil society and decency. In doing so, Erdoğan has precipitated his own eventual downfall. For, youth movements that attract a generation's best and brightest tend to win the war of ideas (and subsequent political power) in the medium-term. At Taksim square Turkish civil society was given an inspiring, attractive, and courageous face with people cleaning up together, nurturing each other by way of mutual discussion and participation on topics of shared concern. Along the way, lawyers and doctors rediscovered their professions as calling while they aided and tended to the victims of oppression at considerable risk to their personal safety. These are not small matters.

Arresting (I almost wrote"Providential") evidence for claim in the previous paragraph is that, this week the Iranian people voted in huge numbers for a reformist establishment cleric (not a revolutionary), who promised a “civil rights charter." Evidently, the Iranian, clerical elite learned some lessons from their own Green Movement.

Meanwhile, the Erdoğan myth has been shattered--for all of his undeniable achievements of the last decade, he cannot be said to stand for the future of Turkey, democratic and islamic, anymore. Turkey is a complex and dynamic society too large to be ruled by authoritarian methods if one does not have access to (oil) wealth to buy off potential challengers (or a common, threatening foreign enemy). For, Erdoğan's allies will be cautious about entrusting him with more personal power (he humiliated some of his closest advisors in public during the last few weeks). Moreover, even if Erdoğan gets to build his mall in Taksim square, the prudential businessman and ordinary folk that have supported him throughout his rise will quietly work to introduce sensible zoning laws into major urban centers--zoning laws reduce the cost of uncertainty over doing business.  So, while it is not impossible that Erdoğan wins another general election (due to the lack of talent in the opposition parties), his brutal, unnecessary overreach against unarmed and peaceful citizens is a self-inflicted wound from which he never will recover.--Eric Schliesser, June 15, 2013@NewAPPS

As predictions go the 'medium term' is helpfully vague. And from the vantage point of the political lives of states, three years is short-term. But even so, the trends in Turkey are not encouraging, and I now think I was wrong above. The failed coup of 15 July 2016 clearly generated the conditions in which (now President) Erdoğan has moved, under the guise of a state of an emergency, toward 'authoritarian methods' that have fatally undermined, if not destroyed, the democratic elements in Turkish politics. In addition, it's pretty clear that many of the 'best and brightest' that can get out are trying to get out of Turkey.

This admission of error was prompted by a dis-invitation to a conference in Turkey that I received yesterday. For, the local magistrates and university interpret the state of emergency regulations in such a way such that everyone invited to an academic conference should be inspected by the police. I could have written this post at any time since July.

Since I am not an expert on Turkish politics, I can't really explain why I was wrong. And that probably explains why I was wrong in the first place, although I hope the medium term in which things improve for my Turkish friends arrive soon.

I write this as the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, appears to have ordered the police assault to empty Gezi park from the brave citizens that taught the whole world lessons in civil society and decency. In doing so, Erdoğan has precipitated his own eventual downfall. For, youth movements that attract a generation's best and brightest tend to win the war of ideas (and subsequent political power) in the medium-term. At Taksim square Turkish civil society was given an inspiring, attractive, and courageous face with people cleaning up together, nurturing each other by way of mutual discussion and participation on topics of shared concern. Along the way, lawyers and doctors rediscovered their professions as calling while they aided and tended to the victims of oppression at considerable risk to their personal safety. These are not small matters.

Arresting (I almost wrote"Providential") evidence for claim in the previous paragraph is that, this week the Iranian people voted in huge numbers for a reformist establishment cleric (not a revolutionary), who promised a “civil rights charter." Evidently, the Iranian, clerical elite learned some lessons from their own Green Movement.

Meanwhile, the Erdoğan myth has been shattered--for all of his undeniable achievements of the last decade, he cannot be said to stand for the future of Turkey, democratic and islamic, anymore. Turkey is a complex and dynamic society too large to be ruled by authoritarian methods if one does not have access to (oil) wealth to buy off potential challengers (or a common, threatening foreign enemy). For, Erdoğan's allies will be cautious about entrusting him with more personal power (he humiliated some of his closest advisors in public during the last few weeks). Moreover, even if Erdoğan gets to build his mall in Taksim square, the prudential businessman and ordinary folk that have supported him throughout his rise will quietly work to introduce sensible zoning laws into major urban centers--zoning laws reduce the cost of uncertainty over doing business.  So, while it is not impossible that Erdoğan wins another general election (due to the lack of talent in the opposition parties), his brutal, unnecessary overreach against unarmed and peaceful citizens is a self-inflicted wound from which he never will recover.--Eric Schliesser, June 15, 2013@NewAPPS

As predictions go the 'medium term' is helpfully vague. And from the vantage point of the political lives of states, three years is short-term. But even so, the trends in Turkey are not encouraging, and I now think I was wrong above. The failed coup of 15 July 2016 clearly generated the conditions in which (now President) Erdoğan has moved, under the guise of a state of an emergency, toward 'authoritarian methods' that have fatally undermined, if not destroyed, the democratic elements in Turkish politics. In addition, it's pretty clear that many of the 'best and brightest' that can get out are trying to get out of Turkey.

This admission of error was prompted by a dis-invitation to a conference in Turkey that I received yesterday. For, the local magistrates and university interpret the state of emergency regulations in such a way such that everyone invited to an academic conference should be inspected by the police. I could have written this post at any time since July.

Since I am not an expert on Turkish politics, I can't really explain why I was wrong. And that probably explains why I was wrong in the first place, although I hope the medium term in which things improve for my Turkish friends arrive soon.