Brexit; the day after

So, I was wrong in my prediction. Leave won. My colleagues in electoral politics have a nice challenge ahead to learn to model and predict one-off electoral campaigns.

EU membership in the UK entailed, de facto, that in exchange for be(com)ing the financial capital of Europe (London), the UK had to open doors to workers from all over Europe (and EU pensioners could retire in Spain). From Western Europe it drew talent to work in finance and cultural industries (fashion, marketing, pop, etc.); from eastern Europe it drew talent to work in building and local service industries. This created a virtuous cycle of rising incomes and wealth for homeowners and capital; the Southeast part of England has been booming for nearly four decades. (It voted overwhelmingly remain.)

Along the way, London became the financial capital for the most influential citizens from countries with authoritarian regimes; this generated more virtuous cycles of rising assets, and growing services.

But rather than taxing the financial wealth and investing in the areas left behind [and, my God, there are lots of run-down, areas of England], the UK elites partied for four decades. These elites also clung to the special relationship with the United States (see, especially, the second Iraq war).

Earlier in the week I noted that absent a common, language, a common (transcendent) religion, and lacking a nationalist ethos, the EU, which is a new kind of empire of peace, ought to develop a common civic religion that can promote shared values that can inform some idea of a common good. For, right now the political practice of the EU is that 'bad news' will be blamed on (faceless bureaucrats in) Brussels, and 'good news' will be credited to local politicians. The EU governance structure does not permit the rise of strong, central leadership. That combination has proven to be a recipe for undermining the political legitimacy and popularity of the Union, especially in the context of slow economic growth and rising immigration since the Great Crash of 2008.*

I have noted that there is a significant part of Islamic youth among EU citizens that clearly does not feel inspired and recognized by the cultural, political, and economic status quo and that has rejected the modern European project. We now have learned that the least educated bit of the English (!) electorate has decided to throw their lot in with an enduring, popular idol: the nation-state, which has a shared language (and currency), control over population, and can be the conduit that channels shared aspirations if only to keep certain people and ideas out.  One can expect that Islamic Internationalism and nation-state chauvinism will clash at the expense of social harmony. To those of us who care about Liberal values (in a broad sense): the battle of ideas -- in favor of the rule of law, exchange of people, ideas, and goods, cosmopolitanism,  --  is being lost  in Europe.

 

 

*In addition, one reason why Europe is stuck with low economic growth is due to sub-optimal monetary and fiscal policy; this sub-optimal policy is due to the absence of mutual trust and a sense of a common good such that a genuine reform of the financial system and crippling European debts keeps being postponed. 

Comments

[Gordon]

So David Cameron is the worst prime minister since Chamberlin, at least. The unforced nature of this referendum is a lot of what's so galling. But the other part of Cameron's legacy is that nearly his first act as PM was to impose austerity measures that put the UK back into the recession it had only just climbed out of.

So the working class people who voted to leave were primed and ready to hear whatever racist claptrap UKIP was peddling, because their lives have gotten worse over the last n years. A lot of that is not really Brussels' fault, either. It's crappy leadership at home; as you imply, a good part of the problem is the neoliberal refusal to admit the existence of a common good, much less act to create one. I mean, after all, the last time the EU was all over the news it was about Germany sticking it to the Greek people with round after round of austerity that won't even fix Greek finances.

Oh, and of course Cameron may also be remembered as the prime minister who destroyed the UK: I would be very surprised if Scotland and probably Northern Ireland didn't seriously consider demanding referenda on leaving the UK and rejoining Europe.