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03/04/2016

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Andrew

What about Republicans with advanced educations who both understand and truly hate Clinton's and Sanders' policies, but also approve of free trade, have far less extreme views about immigration/etc., and think Trump is crazy?

It sounded like you think they will end up voting with the Dems. What makes you think that their disapproval of Trump's policies will outweigh their disapproval for Clinton's/Sanders'? Perhaps there are too few Republicans like this, and they simply won't affect the outcome?

Eric Schliesser

Over time such Republicans will migrate to Dems (that's already happened in the Northeast and California).

Matt

Eric, one worry with the analysis here is with non-whites. "Hispanics" (some of whom are "white"), Native Americans and Alaskans, and African-Americans all earn college degrees at much lower rates than do "whites". That seems unlikely to change very quickly. (Unfortunately.) But, it also seems very, very unlikely that these groups are going to be switching to the Republican side any time soon. Of course, insofar as the Republican side (or any side) keeps pushing all sorts of _explicit_ racist resentment, this is even more the case, but even if we went back to a more subtle version, I'm not sure I'd see the switch you propose _unless we ignore race_. That, of course, is something that can't be done in relation to US politics, unless you really want to get things wrong.

Eric Schliesser

Matt, yes, I agree that race cannot be ignored Stateside (or lots of other places). And, certainly the phenomenon you call attention to will slow/retard/prevent parts of the process I am predicting. But I did note in my post that all this involves "complex interactions among religion, region, and race." Having said that, even Trump is actually trying to attract black voters (despite is very clear racism/xenophobia toward other non-white voters). This may not pay off for him (and certainly he must have alienated Latinos), but I think it is part of more general drift.

Michael M

Where does Sanders fit in to your analysis? He certainly draws on a younger, more educated crowd, one that is fairly disenchanted with the Democratic party as is. Does this seem negligible as such voters are likely to stick to the Dems anyway (or not vote at all)?

Eric Schliesser

I expect the better educated of these voters to vote Dems in the future (despite being unhappy with lots of things Dems do).

Andrew


I've thought about this "digressions" post off-and-on, since you wrote it.

I've continued wondering what educated Republicans will do, when they can't bring themselves to vote for Trump. You're probably right that some of them will end up voting Dem.

But I also predict, now, that this election will see a substantial increase in votes for the Libertarian candidate. And I predict that they will largely be educated voters. I now predict that the Libertarian candidate will get at least 5% of the national vote. That isn't huge, and the points you make in your post still hold. But it is another alternative, which I suspect people will take.

I'm not going to try to justify this prediction; I doubt I could justify it well. I just wanted to share this thought.

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