It's conventional wisdom by now that politically, if you are facing voters, it is toxic to be part of the establishment (see here). Indeed, US primary voters have revealed a lack of excitement about the establishment candidates in both parties. This is especially so in the Republican primary, where the 'establishment lane' appears to have had a plateau of about 35% of the electorate this year. It is worth exploring to what degree the combined anti-establishment vote (Trump, Cruz, Carson, etc.) is a representation of the 'feel' of the Republican part of the electorate or, as seems more likely, also due to the mobilization of 'new' (or formerly disillusioned) voters. On the Democratic side, the enduring competitiveness of the Sanders campaign has also suggested to many that this is a bad year to be associated with the establishment (as Hillary Clinton undeniably is). And, indeed, since the Summer of 2009 on average 2/3 of would be voters have told pollsters in poll after poll that the country is heading in the wrong direction (see here).
But something remarkable has happened. President Obama's job approval ratings have been creeping up and since Valentine's day they have become, on balance, modestly positive again: This is now also reflected in the RealClearPolitics average: 48.7 approve and 47.6 disapprove.
So, if the national election is, in part, a referendum on Obama's performance, the Democratic nominee need not run away from his track record. Obviously, ordinarily, the Democratic party candidate cannot count on all the approve voters--after all, the establishment serves many traditional Republican voters just fine. But, if the Republicans put up a clear non-status quo candidate, as Donald Trump would be, then the voters will be given a straight choice about the direction of the country. And it is by no means obvious that, then, the (partially realigned [recall]) establishment candidate will be defeated. For the fundamentals suggest that there is a plurality that supports the politician most identified with the status quo. (UPDATE: In fact, it's possible that as the victory of Trump in the Republican primary seems more likely that the sitting President seems more approve-worthy!) Given that there is a status quo bias among voters at election time, we can conclude that, while fragile, the establishment need not panic just yet.
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