Four years after a pretty decent Brazilian side cratered under modest pressure of an overachieving Dutch team in the second half of their quarter-final match in Port Elizabeth, South Africa, an extremely solid German side exposed the very visible vulnerabilities and lack of organization of one of the weakest sides Brazil has ever fielded in international competition. As I wrote two weeks ago:
[T]he Croats exposed the vulnerability of Brazil's defense. For whenever the Brazilian backs were challenged on the flanks, they had trouble not just containing the Croatian counter attacks on the wings (catching the Brazilians on the back-foot), they were incapable of preventing Croatian crosses into the box that exposed Brazil's lack of organization at the core of their defense.
Despite this plain evidence of the senses, the number crunchers kept telling us that Brazil was the odds-on favorite not just due to purported home-field-advantage, but also because of the side's performance over the last few years during meaningless practice games. In fact, the supposed home-field advantage may well have been a key disadvantage because it meant that the Brazilian coaching staff was effectively denied the chance to develop a team under more realistic, serious match-play conditions against very good opponents. (The German team has been developed in this very fashion during the last six years.*) The last time the host nation won the world cup was France (1998)--a fantastic side, that was nearly unbeatable for four years. Arguably, the last time home-field advantage really made a difference in the final outcome of world cup play was in 1978.
It's safe to say that the South American qualifying schedule would have exposed the team's existing vulnerabilities (as well as the fact that Scolari has not adjusted to the new realities of world class football) in the same way the Croatians did. (As I remarked the Mexicans also could have done so.)
Nate Silver's post-game blather reveals that he has not come to terms with the fact that his neo-Bayesian model is nearly meaningless in world cup play, that is, a data-poor environment. The last meaningful game the Brazilians played was three years ago; they failed to beat Paraquay in the Copa América in 2011.
*The Germans have a very good side, but they also got lucky that the French coach was scared in the quarter final. Argentina and the Netherlands are both capable of making it very close game.
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